From today's Washington Post. In an interview, Microsoft boss Steve Ballmer says:
"In the next 10 years, the whole world of media, communications and advertising are going to be turned upside down -- my opinion.
"Here are the premises I have. Number one, there will be no media consumption left in 10 years that is not delivered over an IP network. There will be no newspapers, no magazines that are delivered in paper form. Everything gets delivered in an electronic form.
10 years? (Washington Post question)
"Yeah. If it's 14 or if it's 8, it's immaterial to my fundamental point. . . . If we want TV to be more interactive, you'll deliver it over an IP network. I mean, it's sort of funny today.
"My son will stay up all night basically playing Xbox Live with friends that are in various parts of the world, and yet I can't sit there in front of the TV and have the same kind of a social interaction around my favorite basketball game or golf match. It's just because one of these things is delivered over an IP network and the other is not. . . ."
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1 comments:
Maybe. People tend to over-react to trend lines. What goes up must go up faster and faster.
My bet is that some newspapers, and old broadcasts, will survive, but at a lower plateau level ... just as radio survived TV and TV survived the first internet bubble. Very big papers (WSJ) and very small papers (The Hometown Weekly) will probably continue, because the big papers are convenient for businesspeople in hotels and the weeklies get ads from plumbers. But the medium content in the middle will go away. Who needs AP fodder in a 30,000 circ paper if you can get it all on an iPhone Google feed?
So, don't think it's over. Thing big and small win, and the middle goes away.
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