No ho-ho

Christmas cheer 2008? Fat bloody chance. In fact those of us working in the communications industry and planning campaigns for Dec and Jan need to look out for a media agenda that will most probably feature the likes of:

• Top belt tightening tips for Christmas
• January sales start in December
• Leaner times and present buying for people who lost their jobs (apparently nannies are first in line according to today's Evening Standard)
• And so on...

In fact, a Media Post article says that in the States (and there's no reason why it should be different in Europe) it will be the slowest Christmas since 1991:

"Consumers will likely be saying no-ho-ho: TNS predicts sales growth of just 1.5% compared to 2.7% last year, 3.8% in 2006, and 7% in 2005. Back in 1991, he says, growth was 1.2%.

"The retail winners, are likely to be supercenters, warehouse clubs, and dollar stores that have been outperforming other channels in recent months, as well as the consumer electronics category. And the losers are likely to be luxury marketers, mainstream department stores, and home furnishings."

The latter prediction actually goes against what Hitwise found, that based on web searches, the home furnishing sector (and home improvement in general) is up as people spend more time doing up their houses, given that they can no longer sell in.

However, the high end luxury goods market prediction obviously makes sense. Even though during a recession there are still people with plenty of money, according to Pam Danziger of Unity Marketing:

"These people still have plenty of money in their pockets, and earn hefty salaries. The issue is that none of them need anything. Their basements are full, their closets are full. They are only going to buy what really excites them--and having another sale isn't going to do it."

Unity's Luxury Index "has been declining steadily since mid-2007, and now, about 80% of these affluent consumers feel the economy is going in the wrong direction."

A good time to pick up that yacht you've always wanted on the cheap if you are so inclined...

Photo - Steve Chilton